For the record, I should have won both weeks so far in the early going. Went 12-4 week #1. Winner went 13-3. But the deciding game was the late MNF contest where San Diego completely blew a 21 point lead late in the 2nd half against the Texans. I was the only person in the pool to pick the Chargers, so if they hold onto that game, I'm 13-3 for the week and the winner. But I digress.
I was the winner week #2 even though I technically received a loss for the Thursday night game where everybody picked the Patriots over the Jets. I got my pick in late. Stupid Thursday games. Happy it didn't matter. Went 12-4 for the week, tied with six others, but won the week by nailing the tiebreaker score of 30 on the nose.
So heading into week #3, I'm saying for the year I am 25-7 straight up (I'm counting the week #2 Pats game as a win). That's 78.1% on straight picks. That's the exact same percentage at TeamRankings.com, so I'll take it as halfway decent.
Some interesting matchups this week. I'm gonna pick straight up and against the spread. The lines I am using are from the Pigskin Pick'em game on ESPN.com. They are all 1/2 lines so no pushes, which favors the house. For the record, I'm 14-18 on that site so far, a 45.3% clip. Vegas is probably safe. Anyhow, here are the picks.
Thursday, Sept. 19
Eagles -3.5 vs Chiefs
PICKS (Straight/Spread)
Final score: Chiefs 26 - Eagles 16 LOSS/LOSS
This seemed like a pretty safe pick on both fronts. Missed on both. Game wasn't even close. Chiefs looked much better. Not sure how to proceed down the road with either team. They both scare me.
Sunday, Sept. 22
Bengals +2.5 vs Packers
I don't have many angles when it comes to picking games, but one I tend to follow is picking against teams coming off a win in a rivalry game on Monday Night Football. That's what the Bengals did last week. So I'm picking against them on both fronts.
FINAL SCORE: Bengals 34 - Packers 30 LOSS/LOSS
FINAL SCORE: Bengals 34 - Packers 30 LOSS/LOSS
Weird game. Bengals jumped out 14-0. Then the Pack score 30 unanswered points, seemingly having the game in hand. But Cincy scores the final 20 points, the last of which on a fumble return Td as Green Bay was trying to run out the clock. Sweet.
Vikings -5.5 vs Browns
Don't get me wrong, I'm not super high on the Vikes by any means. But, it is apparent the Browns are free-falling. Trade their best player. Switch from a bad QB to a worse one. I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns use the negative energy from the trade to come together as a team for one week. But I'm not gonna pick it to happen. Laying the points, taking Minnesota.
FINAL SCORE: Browns 31 - Vikings 27 LOSS/LOSS
FINAL SCORE: Browns 31 - Vikings 27 LOSS/LOSS
Guess I jumped the gun by calling Brian Hoyer a bad QB. Kid threw for 321 yards with three scores, including the game-winner with under a minute to play. Don't know if it was pride to carry the Browns or the fact the Vikings are pretty bad.
Cowboys -3.5 vs Rams
I'm taking the Boys and laying the points because I believe they are better than they are playing. They are coming off a loss to a team I'm sure they thought they should beat. They are at home. I think they get it done against an underwhelming Rams bunch.
FINAL SCORE: Cowboys 31 - Rams 7 WIN/WIN
Finally nailed one. If the Cowboys can get their running game going, they can win games consistently.
FINAL SCORE: Cowboys 31 - Rams 7 WIN/WIN
Finally nailed one. If the Cowboys can get their running game going, they can win games consistently.
Redskins -1.5 vs Lions
Hedging my bets on this one. I have no confidence in either team, but especially a Lions team on the road. Have to figure the Skins aren't as bad as they've played thru two weeks. I like them to pickup the win at home in a close game.
FINAL SCORE: Lions 27 - Redskins 20 LOSS/WIN
FINAL SCORE: Lions 27 - Redskins 20 LOSS/WIN
Well what do I know? Well, I do know this - the Skins have terrible pass defense.
Titans -3.5 vs Chargers
Another game where I like the home team to win but not cover the spread. Both these teams have played pretty well so far. As a matter of fact, they should both be 2-0. I'm taking the Titans to win at home, but 3.5 seems like to many points to give up. Chargers to cover the spread.
FINAL SCORE: Titans 20 - Chargers 17 WIN/WIN
Totally nailed this one! Titans win outright. Chargers get the points to cover the spread.
FINAL SCORE: Titans 20 - Chargers 17 WIN/WIN
Totally nailed this one! Titans win outright. Chargers get the points to cover the spread.
Patriots -7.5 vs Buccaneers
I'm just waiting for the Pats to put it together. They most certainly have not thru two weeks. But at home against a Bucs team in turmoil, I'm banking they win by double-digits like they should.
FINAL SCORE: Patriots 23 - Buccaneers 3 WIN/WIN
FINAL SCORE: Patriots 23 - Buccaneers 3 WIN/WIN
This one seemed too easy. Pats took the 1st quarter off, but cruised thereafter.
Saints -7.5 vs Cardinals
I truly expect the Saints to win this outright. I'm picking them to cover the spread as well, but I'm not real confident. Larry Fitzgerald and Rashard Mendenhall being injured are the only real reasons to think this could be a blowout.
FINAL SCORE: Saints 31 - Cardinals 7 WIN/WIN
Another winner/winner. Saints are looking good out of the gate.
FINAL SCORE: Saints 31 - Cardinals 7 WIN/WIN
Another winner/winner. Saints are looking good out of the gate.
Panthers -1.5 vs Giants
I can't stand the Panthers this year. The Giants will eventually stop turning the ball over. I think they win this one outright, so getting points is just bonus.
FINAL SCORE: Panthers 38 - Giants 0 LOSS/LOSS
A swing and a miss! Oh my, the Giants looked terrible. I'm telling you the Panthers are not good on offense this year, and they looked like the Saints. Eli Manning looks lost. Not sure what is happening in Gotham, but it ain't good. Ugly!
FINAL SCORE: Panthers 38 - Giants 0 LOSS/LOSS
A swing and a miss! Oh my, the Giants looked terrible. I'm telling you the Panthers are not good on offense this year, and they looked like the Saints. Eli Manning looks lost. Not sure what is happening in Gotham, but it ain't good. Ugly!
Ravens +2.5 vs Texans
This is another one where I'm hedging my picks. I really think the Ravens play well at home this week. Texans should be 0-2. I just don't think they go into a tough environment and bully the defending Super Bowl champs. I really think the Ravens might win this outright, but I'll at least take them to cover the spread.
FINAL SCORE: Ravens 30 - Texans 9 LOSS/WIN
Should have just stuck with my gut in this one and picked the Ravens to win outright. Oh well. Lost the pick but pretty accurately predicted the result.
Should have just stuck with my gut in this one and picked the Ravens to win outright. Oh well. Lost the pick but pretty accurately predicted the result.
Dolphins -1.5 vs Falcons
Now I don't know what I'm thinking. I'm kinda playing a hunch here. I'm going Dolphins straight up at home in a game they are favored. I'm picking Falcons to cover the spread because my guy just tells me they are the better team. Lot of hedging going on here.
FINAL SCORE: Dolphins 27 - Falcons 23 WIN/LOSS
Dolphins look for real this season. Atlanta is a good team, so to beat them and cover the spread in doing so is impressive.
FINAL SCORE: Dolphins 27 - Falcons 23 WIN/LOSS
Dolphins look for real this season. Atlanta is a good team, so to beat them and cover the spread in doing so is impressive.
Jets -2.5 vs Bills
I just believe the Bills are the better team. And I really don't like Geno Smith. Big difference between the two rookie QBs in this game. Smith was the beneficiary of a bonehead penalty to help his team win their first game. He stands on the sideline pumping his chest and acting like he actually did something. EJ Manuel, on the other hand, actually drove his team down the field with the game on the line and threw a game winning touchdown pass as time expired. Did he react like a complete idiot? Nope. He was moved to tears. No chest pumping. No self-aggrandizing. I'm rooting for him.
FINAL SCORE: Jets 27 - Bills 20 LOSS/LOSS
FINAL SCORE: Jets 27 - Bills 20 LOSS/LOSS
If I lived in Buffalo, I couldn't watch the Bills play. Rookie QB under center and you throw the ball 42 times in a game that was never out of reach. And your backfield is loaded with two stud RBs, yet only give Spiller and Jackson 17 carries combined? Ridiculous coaching. Bills constantly settled for FGs.
49ers -10.5 vs Colts
Almost have to pick the Niners in this one straight up, but I'm taking the points and the Colts to cover the spread. And I can't wait to see T-Rich in uniform. This could be the start of something special for Indy.
FINAL SCORE: Colts 27 - 49ers 7 LOSS/WIN
FINAL SCORE: Colts 27 - 49ers 7 LOSS/WIN
Where do I start. Yeah, I missed the straight up pick, but so what. This was the most awesome game the Colts have played in a long time. I am so excited about the prospects of this team I'm giddy. That was a thorough beatdown of a team that was in the Super Bowl last year. And on the road! Hell yeah!!!
Seahawks -19.5 vs Jaguars
It's simple in this one. Seattle will win this game, but I'm not giving any team in the NFL 19.5 points. Jags cover the spread.
FINAL SCORE: Seahawks 45 - Jaguars 17 WIN/LOSS
FINAL SCORE: Seahawks 45 - Jaguars 17 WIN/LOSS
Never say never. Seahawks had the 20 point spread covered in the 1st half.
Steelers +2.5 vs Bears
I'm probably going down with the Steelers ship here, but so be it. Bears are lucky to have won both the games they played, one against a common opponent in the Bengals. Difference is that the Bears won their game at home while this time they will be playing in Pittsburgh. I think the Steelers get it done. They have pride in that organization and know this is a must win game to save their season.
FINAL SCORE: Bears 40 - Steelers 23 LOSS/LOSS
And the ship has sunk. Pittsburgh is not the same Pittsburgh as in years past. At the very least, in the past, they could rely on their defense. Not so much this year. Chicago was up 17-0 in what seemed a blink of an eye.
FINAL SCORE: Bears 40 - Steelers 23 LOSS/LOSS
And the ship has sunk. Pittsburgh is not the same Pittsburgh as in years past. At the very least, in the past, they could rely on their defense. Not so much this year. Chicago was up 17-0 in what seemed a blink of an eye.
Monday, Sept. 23
Broncos -14.5 vs Raiders
Broncos covered at home last year in this matchup by 31 points. So far it looks like Denver is a better team this season. Not so sure about the Raiders. Laying the two touchdowns.
FINAL SCORE: Broncos 37 - Raiders 21 WIN/WIN
The Broncos are rolling right now. I think they would be favored in any game they played, with the exception of maybe on the road in Seattle. The game ended up close to the spread, but it wasn't that close.
Terrible week picking games. Granted, there were a few upsets this week, but still. Almost all of my hunches were wrong. It was one of those weeks. Gonna bounce back week #4.
STRAIGHT UP: 7-9 week 32-16 overall 66.7%
SPREAD: 8-8 week 22-26 overall 45.8%
FINAL SCORE: Broncos 37 - Raiders 21 WIN/WIN
The Broncos are rolling right now. I think they would be favored in any game they played, with the exception of maybe on the road in Seattle. The game ended up close to the spread, but it wasn't that close.
Terrible week picking games. Granted, there were a few upsets this week, but still. Almost all of my hunches were wrong. It was one of those weeks. Gonna bounce back week #4.
STRAIGHT UP: 7-9 week 32-16 overall 66.7%
SPREAD: 8-8 week 22-26 overall 45.8%
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