Week #3 Recap: Somehow or another, I actually managed to pick better against the spread last week than picking straight up. Of course, going 8-8 isn't going to break the bank in Vegas. As a matter of fact, it would break my bank if I was actually putting money on the games.
Of the eight games that I missed, a couple really should have went the other way. The Pack were up at one point in the 2nd half 30-14 and somehow managed to lose to the Bengals. And the Falcons pretty much dominated their game with the Dolphins, winning the time of possession battle by more than 15 minutes, but somehow lost AND didn't cover??
My mortal lock last week lost their game 38-0. Thanks Giants. That is what you would term a BAD loss. The other misses were just a matter of picking the wrong side. That's gonna happen. Overall, even though it was my worst week picking to date, I don't feel that bad about it.
So let's get to the week #4 matchups!
Thursday, Sept. 26
Rams +3.5 vs 49ers
PICKS (Straight/Spread)
FINAL SCORE: 49ers 35 - Rams 11 WIN/WIN
The Rams have been pretty porous on defense, especially against the run thus far. My thinking was the Niners would pound the ball right down their throats. Plus, San Fran was pissed after their lackluster performance against the Colts last week as almost a ten point favorite. Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 ATS as a favorite following a loss as a favorite. Winner!
Sunday, Sept. 29
Bills +3.5 vs Ravens
I'm taking the Ravens straight up because they are clearly a superior team. So that makes that easy. The spread though has me troubled. This seems like a trap game to me. The Ravens know they should win, but they have the undefeated Dolphins, Green Bay and rival Pittsburgh coming up after this one. Will they be looking ahead? I'm going with Baltimore to cover based solely on Buffalo's 9-23 ATS record against winning teams in their last 32. Sometimes you have to play the angles.
FINAL SCORE: Bills 23 - Ravens 20 LOSS/LOSS
Apparently Baltimore was looking ahead cause they looked flat as hell in this game. Joe Flacco threw five, count 'em FIVE interceptions. Ravens fell behind early and never could get things going. They better get things together with the next three they have coming up.
Lions -2.5 vs Bears
Do I think the Bears are as good as their 3-0 record? No. Do I like the Lions, especially at home? Yes. So why am I taking the Bears to win this one outright as a road underdog? Because the Bears own the Lions of late. Chicago has defeated Detroit in 14 of their last 17 meetings. And I love the idea of the "better" team getting points. Going Bears both ways!
FINAL SCORE: Lions 40 - Bears 32 LOSS/LOSS
Well so much for the Bears owning the Lions. Detroit was up 30-10 at one point in the 1st half. Jay Cutler threw three picks and also lost a fumble.
Browns +4.5 vs Bengals
This is one of those games where I'm just going with the better team. I think the Browns played with some professional pride and pulled out a victory last week. But that was against the Vikings. The Bengals are a different beast. I know they should have lost last week against the Pack, but they didn't. And Green Bay is far superior than Minnesota. I hate laying 4.5 to a home dog, but I think the Bengals get it done.
FINAL SCORE: Browns 17 - Bengals 6 LOSS/LOSS
Seriously Cincinnati? You can't even get it into the endzone against the Browns? Brian Hoyer will keep this job for the Cleveland, at least for 2013. His connection with rookie TE Jordan Cameron is tangible. A week after connecting for three Tds against the Vikings, the Hoyer/Jordan combo goes for a 10/91/1 slash line.
Jaguars +8.5 vs Colts
Ok, I'm obviously taking the Colts straight up against the Jaguars. Hell, I'm taking everybody this year straight up against the Jaguars. But I'm going with my gut and taking the Colts and laying the 8.5 points. These two teams normally play close games. As a matter of fact, 17 of the last 22 meetings between the two teams has been decided by 8 points or less. Indy did win in Jacksonville last year by 17, but they lost at home. Jags are just so bad, picking against them on all fronts until they prove I should do otherwise.
FINAL SCORE: Colts 37 - Jaguars 3 WIN/WIN
Finally, a game that goes as planned. The Jags went up 3-0 in this one before getting completely steamrolled. In a week of some poor QB play, Blaine Gabbert may have been the worst. Three picks and a 1.7 QBR. You know you are bad when the team announces you will start the game and the line actually moves the other way! Colts have a huge game at home against the Seahawks next week. The Browns and Colts are 4-0 combined since their blockbuster trade.
Chiefs -4.5 vs Giants
Chiefs are playing well. Giants are playing TERRIBLE. So why in the world would I pick the G-men in this contest? I don't know. I'm thinking the Giants will be desperate for a win in this one. Chiefs not so much. Plus New York was embarrassed in their last one. Completely. I'm thinking they might be out to prove something.
FINAL SCORE: Chiefs 31 - Giants 7 LOSS/LOSS
This week is getting ugly. Not quite as ugly as the Giants season though. I wrote before the contest that New York was playing terrible. What's worse than that? They look so bad in every facet of the game right now. On the other hand, kudos to Andy Reid for making the Chiefs relevant again. They are sitting at a legitimate 4-0. Granted, they've been beating up on a horrible NFC East, but still. Wins are wins.
Vikings -0.5 vs Steelers
A pair of 0-3 teams try to right their ships on foreign ground in London. My thinking is that if Brian Hoyer can light up the Vikings secondary, Big Ben should be able to do that and more. In basically a pick'em game, I'll go with who I think is the better team. By the way, Pittsburgh is only 0-3 for the second time since 1978. They are 2-0 both straight up and against the spread in week #4 following those starts. Small sample size, but I'm buying it.
FINAL SCORE: Vikings 34 - Steelers 27 LOSS/LOSS
Well Big Ben did light up the Vikes secondary to the tune of 383 yards. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough. Matt Cassell filled in at QB and threw two Tds a no picks. Oh, and some guy named Adrien Peterson ran for 140 yards with two TDs.
Buccaneers -2.5 vs Cardinals
This is a game where it seems the line is backwards to me. The Bucs have been terrible, benching their starting QB. They have two ailing WRs, and in general a team looking to quit on their coach. Not that I love the Cards, but this seems like a good spot to pickup a road win. Pick Arizona both ways.
FINAL SCORE: Cardinals 13 - Buccaneers 10 WIN/WIN
Hey, I got one right, although it didn't look like it throughout the game. The Bucs actually led this one 10-0 in the 4th quarter. Finally, Carson Palmer got the memo that he needs to get his best player, Larry Fitzgerald, the ball despite being covered by Derrelle Revis. 13 unasnwered points later and the Cards pickup the road win.
Texans +2.5 vs Seahawks
I hate to go against a good team at home who is getting points, but I'm doing it here. First of all, Houston may not be that good. The Texans should legitimately be 0-3 at this point (somehow they have skated to 2-1). Secondly, Seattle is very good. They might be the best team in the league right now. Historically, their record as road favorites isn't good (17-30 ATS), but this is a different Seahawks team than in the past. And Houston as a home dog hasn't performed well. They have been the dog six times since 2008, going 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in those six. Give me the team playing well on both fronts.
FINAL SCORE: Seahawks 23 - Texans 20 WIN/WIN
This is another one that looked like it was gonna go the other way for most of the game. Houston was up 20-3 at halftime only to see Seattle storm back in the 2nd half to force overtime and then win it in the extra session. Seahawks with a big road game in Indy next week. It will be interesting to see where the line falls in that one.
Titans -3.5 vs Jets
If I wasn't forced to pick every game, I would stay away from this one. I really have no feel whatsoever. Gonna go with the home team straight up in a close game. Jets cover the spread and could possibly pull the upset.
FINAL SCORE: Titans 38 - Jets 13 WIN/LOSS
The Titans were clearly the better team in this one. Jake Locker looked excellent before leaving the game late with an injury. Tennessee is sitting at 2-2 on the year, but have three tough ones on the horizon - hosting KC, on the road in Seattle, then back at home hosting San Fran before their bye week. Those three games are their season right there.
Chargers +1.5 vs Cowboys
This is another game I'm not very confident about. But the way I look at it is if I see two fairly equal teams, take the one getting the points, especially at home.
FINAL SCORE: Chargers 31 - Cowboys 20 WIN/WIN
Chargers were actually down 21-10 in this one before storming back with 20 unanswered points. Phillip Rivers threw for 401 and three TDs. He's quietly having a fantastic season. 1200 yards through four games with 11 Tds and only two picks.
Broncos -11.5 vs Eagles
Broncos are the easy straight up pick. But I don't like them giving up 11.5 in this spot. Here's a couple reasons why: the Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games when the previous game was played on Monday Night Football. Also, the Eagles first three games came in the span of 11 days. They've since had a long week to prepare for this one. Although the Broncos have easily looked like the class of the NFL through three games, I'm picking the Eagles in this spot to cover the double-digit spread.
FINAL SCORE: Broncos 52 - Eagles 20 WIN/LOSS
I'm officially on the Broncos bandwagon. I honestly think this offense under Peyton Manning may be one of the best ever. They literally do whatever they want when they have the ball. And if Rivers is having a fantastic season, then how would you describe Manning's so far? Almost 1500 yards, 75% completion percentage, 16 Tds, zero interceptions. Poor Cowboys go from one to the other next week.
Raiders +2.5 vs Redskins
You know Vegas has no love for Oakland when they give them 2.5 points at home to a winless team. The numbers say that since 1989, a winless road team is only 2-6 ATS as favorites. Oakland is actually 3-0 ATS in 2013, with covers against Denver and Indianapolis. I know Terrelle Pryor is injured and may not play, but switching to Matt Flynn may actually be an upgrade. I'm taking the Raiders to win this game outright.
FINAL SCORE: Redskins 24 - Raiders 14 LOSS/LOSS
Not sure what happened in this one. Oakland was actually up 14-0 in the 1st quarter before having the wheels come completely off. Darren McFadden got hurt (SHOCK!). Matt Flynn wasn't much of an upgrade after all. Still not sold on the Redskins this year, but a win is a win.
Falcons -1.5 vs Patriots
As much as I hate to pick against Brady when he's getting points, I'm doing it in this spot. Here's why. Atlanta is good at home. Coach Mike Smith is 34-5 SU at home with Matt Ryan as his starter and 24-13-2 ATS. I know all about Tom Brady and his numbers, but fact is this isn't the same Patriots team so far in 2013. As good as Brady and the New England offense has been in the past, they have yet to eclipse 24 points this year, and that's against the likes of the Bills, Jets and Buccaneers. Atlanta is sitting on a 1-2 record so far. They didn't lose their second game last year until December. Atlanta should have won their game last week on the road in Miami, a team that could easily knock the Pats off their stranglehold in their division. I say the home team comes up big in the marquee matchup of the week. Falcons both ways.
FINAL SCORE: Patriots 30 - Falcons 23 LOSS/LOSS
Atlanta actually had a great chance in this one late to send it to overtime with four shots from about the NE 12 yard line, but they came up empty. I actually like the Falcons this year, but they are currently sitting on a 1-3 record. Their next four are all winnable, hosting the Jets and Bucs, away at the Cardinals and Panthers. They almost certainly will need to win all four of those if they want to have a shot at catching the undefeated Saints in their division.
Monday, Sept. 30
Saints -6.5 vs Dolphins
A battle of unbeaten teams on MNF. Gotta love that. This will be the sixth time two undefeated teams with at least three wins apiece have met on such an occasion, the first since 1998. The home teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in those meeting. I really think the Dolphins will be a little shell-shocked in this one. New Orleans is used to this kind of stage. Saints win this one big.
FINAL SCORE: Saints 38 - Dolphins 17 WIN/WIN
Final game of the week is the one I had the best read on. Hell, I almost nailed the final score (I predicted 35-17). Last year at this time, the Saints were sitting on an 0-4 record. This year they are 4-0. Welcome back Sean Payton. Next two for New Orleans, at Chicago and at New England. Those two games will go a long way in determining how we look at the Saints come playoff time.
Another sub-par week. Nailed a couple games, but also got hammered on a couple. A quarter of the season down. Teams are starting to show their true colors. Need to bounce back next week.
STRAIGHT UP: 8-7 week 40-23 overall
63.5%
SPREAD: 6-9 week 28-35 overall
44.4%
